The 2026 Jones Act Waiver

At over 200 days, the 2026 Jones Act waiver is the longest in history and is currently set to expire in mid-November. Until this year, no waiver had lasted long enough to test whether the Jones Act prevents domestic petroleum supply from meeting domestic demand, so that debate remained largely theoretical. Balsa’s analysis of AIS data on 56 Jones Act tankers and 96 articulated tug barges (ATBs), together with 296 waiver voyages reported to MARAD by October 5, now provides the valuable real-world evidence on the question.

The domestic fleet was not available. A U.S.-flag vessel was available for only 5% of waiver voyages. Jones Act tankers and ATBs showed no unusual idleness and sailed consistent routes.

The domestic fleet was not harmed. Fleet activity during the waiver showed no change from 2025, and Kirby, a major ATB operator, reported that the waiver had no impact.

Waiver vessels met unserved demand. Most waiver voyages ran between states the domestic fleet already served, but its vessels were fully occupied with their own contracts. Waiver vessels also strengthened connections the domestic fleet serves only thinly, notably Puerto Rico–mainland and Gulf–West Coast.

The waiver has narrowed over time. Since August 17, eligible cargo has been restricted and MARAD must confirm that no Jones Act vessel is available before approving a voyage. Trade has shifted from the Gulf–West Coast route towards Gulf–East Coast shipments, and Puerto Rico’s share of voyages has tripled since April.